In the beginning of 2020, when everyone was just adjusting to writing dates ending with “20” and, most probably, planning a vacation somewhere for the second half of the year, a weird epidemic broke out in China.
The world watched the Chinese pushing restrictions never seen before by many in their lifetimes, while having no idea about that particular moment being just the start of something even more disastrous. A different, special type of crisis was lurking just around the corner, and the world was not expecting this. Two years later, a lot has changed, for a lot of people. Some just let themselves go at the whim of the events, others decided to struggle towards the top of the wave and rode it. And the same goes for organisations and even for countries.
Romania seems to have stayed so far within the group that chose to drift rather than to struggle. Ever since the start of the pandemic, the country’s leaders seemed to do their best so that Romania remained within the boundaries of the “followers’ platoon”. Focusing on immediate or short-term measures (as many others did, to be honest), the political establishment in Bucharest appeared to be overwhelmed by the moment, and, apparently with no vision of the future whatsoever, got stuck in a defensive position across the board. The pandemic measures were generally insufficiently thought through and communicated even worse. The private sector was subsequently applauded for its “resilience”, but, also to be honest, it had no other choice.
Then the economic effects of the pandemic started to show, expected by some, while surprising for others. The energy crisis and the rising inflation, even if disregarded by some, came on top of the already strained systems, and Romania was not, and is not, an exception. Over-confident governments (at least in terms of public communication) tried to convince the public that the overall situation of Romania was actually improving, at a time when the obvious results of the crisis were just the growing public debt and falling purchasing power.
Fast forward to the present, and we see how the now almost usual lack of certainty and trust in their future manifested by Romanians is actually momentarily based on solid arguments. Not that they lacked those arguments before, but the situation has been deteriorating for a while now, not at all making it easy for the wider population. According to the Romanian National Statistics Institute, almost a quarter of Romanians can be considered as being poor. That is one in four people that cannot reach at least 60% of the medium level of wealth in Romania. Very few want to take into account that the same figure was around 50% in 2007. If these are not numbers that can shake up (a bump to ignite ambition) a government, I don’t know which are. And the government was actually shaken, really hard even, but not because of the state of poverty of many Romanians, but (unfortunately) because of political turmoil and misunderstandings within the ruling coalition.
There is, though, some room for optimism, even during this gloomy context plagued by the ongoing pandemic and the increasingly conflictual approach of Russia in regards to its neighbour, Ukraine, that has the actual capability of doing almost as much economic damage as a full-scale war. According to the most recent survey of INSCOP, Romanians fully believe in their democratic, Western orientation, and trust Romania’s partners to step up and help the country in case of war. 77% of Romanians think that Bucharest’s politics and policies should look to the West for inspiration and alliances both political and military. This means that all hope is not lost for the future of our young democracy. Our Western anchoring is solid as a rock.
But because having a population which appreciates the West and all its benefits is not enough for a government to actually provide for its citizens, there are some steps that would definitely prove useful for the future of Romania:
Work on the Global Romania concept: don’t just talk the talk, but also walk the walk. Take steps like actually strategically investing in Romania’s international profile, fund the embassies, gather investors, actively promote Romanian companies / excellence abroad. During a crisis, financial bubbles are quick to swell and quicker to burst, and a state has to start working more like a modern company than like a bureaucracy, gain momentum, use all the leverages it has at its disposal. Add content and substance to slogans. Define goals and work for achieving them. The membership to the OECD can be used as a trampoline for Romania’s global positioning;
Romania doesn’t benefit from a very “safe” geographical position, especially when looking at the current regional context and Russia’s moves. But every challenge comes with an opportunity, and the opportunity for Romania now is to act. Only “existing” is not enough anymore, and would only mean that the country will be as “steadfast” as a driverless car without the advanced autopilot feature. Study the regional context and focus on what can be improved in the country’s relationship with the neighbours, realistically, from the diplomatic point of view but, more importantly, economically. Know your friends, enemies and frenemies. It’s a complicated world out there. The accession to OECD mentioned earlier means that a change of mindset is needed. Romania is now sitting at the big/ richer boys’ (and girls) table, so it must act as such and play its part. Filling of substance those claims of regional leadership should be a priority;
Romania has huge “potential” (a word affected by over-repetition amid partial lack of delivery and follow up). That is obvious from the rate of development of the Romanian tech scene, with unicorn UiPath just leading the way for others to follow. Some might say that Romanian companies are in fact developing in spite of the governments that seemed to be preoccupied by anything else except their actual job. What can the government do to help? Not getting in the way would be the least it can do. Providing the private companies with predictability is the next step. Think what you can do for the private sector, not what the private sector can do for you, i.e. as a tax milking cow.
If these steps seem simple, it’s because they are. The problem is the fact that we have to mention them over and over again. Nevertheless, they should be constantly pushed forward, as the solution for a developed Global Romania that provides wealth for its citizens is within reach. The insight and know-how exist. A wider story to inspire can be developed and promoted. But beyond aspiration and inspiration (having a role also in a wider “Educated Romania” leveling up of collective mentalities), we will also need determination and delivery.