We are constantly being told that this is the worst crisis since the 1930s (the IMF actually said it this week), so it is no wonder that people are scared and desperately need some reasons for hope. Until we obtain any trusted vaccine, leadership and a competent management of the crisis at the global, regional, national, and local levels are our best antidote to the pandemic. If, at the international level, we are still waiting from G7 and G20 more than well-crafted statements (here, the EU has really stepped up and plays an increasingly relevant role), it is even more important what the national leaders are doing in terms of securing the people’s trust.
In my home Romania and in other countries as well, April should not be a lost month, but an opportunity to prepare the next stages of the crisis. To be blunt but also very honest, good preparation now will avoid (economic) meltdown later in May and June. Here, I want to suggest five directions for a national leadership roadmap that could help political leaders navigate these challenging times.
- Tell your story now! Leaders should treat their citizens as the adults in the room. A difficult, hard-truth conversation is required to keep everyone mobilized and aware that we are still far from the end of the lockdown and that a 2nd, 3rd or n-wave may come back. However, the short-term focus should be matched with the attempt to offer a longer-term perspective about what has to happen once the healthcare crisis is left behind; nothing gives more peace of mind (as limited as it is these days) than the sentiment that the leaders are thinking about the future and have some ideas about how to hit the (economic) ground running. Framing the dialogue in terms of the choices and the trade-offs the country faces is the smart thing to do. Moreover, consistency and coordination among the key voices and institutions are a big part of the story, as uncertainty fuels citizen and market distrust.
- Look for longtime -as well as new- friends and favors! Now is the time to check one’s rolodex, reconnect with friends and partners, and ask people and organisations to return favors. This is more than a national game and it cannot be played under the mantra of self-sufficiency (as appealing as this could seem, especially in terms of ensuring basic products and services). It is time for planning and reaching out: see what you can do to help, do not shy away from asking for advice and support, activate networks and connections. Such a plan is especially important for your country’s exporters, who are struggling these days: they need every help they can get in accessing new markets, caught in a global environment in which there is a fight for every penny. Even barters can work these days. We are entering at least a year of “whatever works” to survive; thriving will have to wait unless you are among the lucky ones sitting on a vast amount of cash, and it’s “sales” or “M&A” buyer season for you.
- Adjust your national and global list of priorities! The context requires adjustment and adaptation. Acting as if nothing has changed is a recipe for disaster. If Tokyo and Dubai had the wisdom to postpone, with one year till 2021,major events that linked both big previous investments and national pride combined with future plans, so can you. So, one should carefully analyze what to keep from the most recent strategy: identify what should be realistically dropped and where the resources should go in order to mitigate the twin health and economic crises. It is all about flexibility and agility in imagining scenarios and responding to the challenges. One thing to always keep in mind: health comes first, but the supply of essential goods and services are a close second given potential market disruption. For instance, any problem in terms of food supply or water security will trigger social unrest, and you don’t want for May -or more widely 2020- to become a revolutionary spring.
- Shape up your team and expand your brainpower and options! National leaders will need more intellectual resources than before, hence expanded and updated “war rooms” dealing with the essence of good governance, from a strategy, policy and communications perspective. Here, in each nation, it’s now time not for nationalism but for smart patriotism, and a big tent feeling: key entrepreneurs, think tankers and academics could come in handy for political and administrative leaders, please use them extensively since they are trained to have a macroview and combine creatively foresight with realistic data. From scenario planning to the identification of actual economic solutions and innovative pathways, the more diverse and interesting voices inside your “advisory tent”, the better. A special note here for the importance of thought leadership in the global media in the process; this is another way to inspire or build coalitions and make or consolidate (international) friends, by showing up in the world ideas arena periodically and talk best practices by mounting ideas that may work for others as well. Or at least, show solidarity with the organisations you are part of and don’t add to the current disruption or troublemakers camps. This will be noticed.
- Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate! No one will do that for you, and it is wrong, both for you and your country or community, to beMr. or Mrs. “Nice guy/ gal” only for the sake of a pat on the back or a prize for being a “lovely globalizer” who then loses elections at home amid expanding poverty. We are in an age of tested solidarity, so simple declarations of intention will not do, no more “we salute”, “we are looking closely at”, and all the regular bla bla. People will become increasingly impatient in the months to come, and fellow global stakeholders increasingly nervous due to a multitude of pressures; so time to improve the talk and then actually walk the talk. Whether we are talking about coordinated regional stimulus, remapping or then reshaping and rebuilding regional and global supply chains, or specifically for example the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework decision time (think Recovery Fund! and its best access), pedal on, country leaders. Moreover, it will be important how and from whom you borrow, what are the involved costs and what mergers and acquisitions are best for the country interest. Sometimes diversification works, sometimes it may be problematic amid great power competition. At the end of the day, you have to deliver for your population, amid a scarcity of national and global resources.
Like Chris Rock used to say, “wealth is not about having a lot of money; it’s about having a lot of options”. Leaders and national societies need working alternatives and they need them in April or the latest beginning of May. They can either copy-paste regional and global practices while adapting them to local realities, or they can innovate and become themselves a model to follow. In any case, April should not be wasted, despite religious “distancing holidays” (quite the contrary, praying helps, so let’s all ask God for wisdom!). It is time for swift and smart thinking, or else the meltdown will continue in May and beyond with depressing individual, community, national and global consequences.