What is certain is that the withdrawal of the US and NATO from the country has been a debacle and the botched operation has received a lot of criticism, even from those who are sympathetic to the American interests. Comparisons with Vietnam have abounded. Given what has happened at the Kabul airport after the Taliban took control of the capital, the strategic decision to pull out of Afghanistan – a consequence of the deal reached last year in Doha between the US and the Taliban – is questioned. Yesterday’s terrorist attacks, after which a significant number of Americans and Afghans have lost their lives, have consolidated the image of a failure of epic proportions and the consequences are likely to be important, especially for the US domestic politics.
Beyond the details of the situation, what emerges is a certain narrative about the US as a global actor. Some express doubts about the American credibility on the international stage, about its willingness to coordinate with and support its allies, especially those facing important security challenges (think about Ukraine, but also more broadly about South-East Asia and NATO’s Eastern flank). We also witness broader discussions about imperial overstretch, about the fate of a declining power in a world that is increasingly multipolar, about the growing and robust opposition to the global liberal order, about the potential transformation of international politics, about great power dynamics and evolving security arrangements that are not favorable to the American interests.
Some would say, in a cynical manner, that this is only about America and we should not be too concerned. However, are the events we are experiencing today, interpreted mainly as a sign of the American decline and as a harbinger of a new global order (you know the story: Afghanistan, the “graveyard” of another empire), only about America? Should we, Romanians, pay attention to these evolutions?
As a country whose security depends on America’s NATO leadership and commitment to Eastern Europe, it would be foolish not to carefully analyze (and hopefully go beyond this contemplative stage) the impact of the current events. A disengaged and isolationist America, one that would interpret the Afghanistan lesson as an invitation to reduce global commitments and to opt only for nation-building at home, would generate a void in global politics. And we know too well that nature abhors the void. In different regions of the world, be it South-East Asia or Eastern Europe, rising or resurgent powers would step in and take advantage of the situation, which would further weaken a rules-based international order and would cast additional doubts on the viability of liberal democracy as the best path to follow to reach prosperity and peace. This would also put additional pressure on the transatlantic relations, which have not fully recovered from the turbulent Trump years and are again tested these days given how the withdrawal decision was taken. This scenario is obviously exaggerated, but it helps put things into perspective and force us to act.
So what could be done? I am not talking in general, but from the Romanian standpoint. First, it is important to show public solidarity with the US, starting with the political and governmental levels. Not just be nicely silent. Even superpowers need to be sometimes comforted. We could express our willingness to help (and the recent CSAT has shown signs that we are embracing this path), in terms of what will happen with those extracted from Afghanistan (i.e., refugee relocation and burden sharing). This is a common fight for credibility, since we cherish the idea that we share the same values and ideals with our American partners.
Second, I believe that the current public debate in Romania about Afghanistan and broader implications for international politics would benefit from more nuance, with the goal of preventing the anti-American discourse to take off even in a society well known for its pro-American bent; it is the role of public opinion leaders to understand their responsibility and contribute to this more nuanced and balanced debate.
Third, given the likely American regrouping, it makes sense to invest more in reinforcing the narrative of the strategic importance of our region, both for us and the Americans. We have some convincing arguments, which will have to be reiterated: they concern not only the American military presence in Romania, but also its economic footprint (in 2019, the US was the fifth foreign investor in our country). We could more forcibly make the case to our American friends to focus energy and deploy resources where it really matters and where the results could serve the American foreign policy. Fourth, we could play our role (especially at the regional level) in the Biden administration’s attempt to bring the world’s democracies closer together (remember, Biden will host a Summit for Democracy in December); against the danger of democratic backsliding, we could speak more about democratic consolidation and about a positive example in Eastern Europe, compared to the worrying cases of Hungary and others. Lastly, we could help within the EU and NATO in terms of promoting more cohesion, more solidarity, and a focus on common values, which are currently under assault; we have acted as mediators in the past, so we could do it again. But we need to be active players for that.
These are some initial thoughts, and I am sure that, through a brainstorming involving those who deeply care about the US and its global involvement, we could come up with better actionable points about what Romania could do in this context. The essence of my message is this: the battle for credibility is not only America’s, it concerns us as well, as partners and friends dedicated to the rules-based global order.